A survey by the European Tour Operators Association has shown that underlying demand for visits to Europe is strong but revealed worries about a war effect.

ETOA executive director, Tom Jenkins said: 'We are entering a period of volatility in demand and consumer confidence is extremely fragile.'

Jenkins added that pictures in the media of armoured personnel carriers at Heathrow recently 'projected an image of a continent in crisis.' However, Sandie Shaw, communications director for the British Tourist Authority, said it had found the military presence had made people feel more secure and confident abut travelling.'

If there were to be a war, the ETOA's members predict overall demand for Europe will drop by 21 per cent, equivalent to 1.7m long haul passengers, and resulting in a decrease in spending of EUR3.6bn.

In the UK, 400,000 visitors would not arrive and spending would fall by £200m. Even Scandinavia, seen as a 'safe destination', would see a EUR250m drop in spending.

However, Jenkins said Europe remains a safe destination and said: 'There has never been a better time to book a trip. 2003 will be a year of exceptional value and wide-open availability.' Details: www.etoa.org