Those of you who endured blizzards in the east and north east in late December will know that economic forecasts for the UK can be as interchangeable as the weather.

In November, the Bank of England announced that the growth rate of consumer credit had hit its lowest level for 11 years.

It was also reported that overall consumer spending had suffered during the Christmas period, with two independent research groups (SPSC and Footfall) reporting that High Street traffic after Boxing Day had dropped off.

Since then, Next and M&S have reported a more successful trading period than initially feared, and a survey by market research company Him has shown that one in five people are eating out more regularly than 12 months ago.

High street traffic has not ground to a halt completely then.

VisitBritain announced this month that UK tourism has undergone serious changes since the late 1970s. While visitor numbers have doubled to record levels over the last 25 years, spending by inbound tourists has decreased so much that the tourism industry now finds itself faced with a £17m deficit (in 2004), despite enjoying a £2bn surplus in 1979.

While VisitBritain anticipates that the number of inbound visitors will continue to outgrow our traditional competitors, the (smoke) signals emanating from government suggest that there will be no respite from regulation during this difficult period for the hospitality industry, and that in fact regulation looks likely to be stepped up over the next few months.

We begin 2006 with a number of government consultations in hand: good practice guidance on tourism planning; Scottish fire safety and labelling of beef on menus; the “bed tax” issue in England from the interim Lyons report; the EU Unfair Commercial Practices Directive; and Business Rates in Wales.

There are also other ongoing developments for the BHA to monitor such as fire regulation reform; an increase in the national minimum wage; changes to statutory holiday pay; parental leave provisions; salt and fat content in food.

What the hospitality industry needs most at the moment is less government, but in fact – despite protestations to the contrary – it appears that less is more.

For the moment my advice to members is to be prepared to weather the storm for the coming months, as the unsettled spell looks set to continue.