A British Travel Trade Fair briefing has outlined the possible impact the war in Iraq will have on England's domestic tourism industry.

The report indicates that in previous crises - such as the first Gulf war, foot and mouth disease and the attack on the World Trade Centre - the first reaction of consumers was to do nothing until they could see how the situation developed.

Once the resolve to act had been made, lower-risk decisions tended to be made first, resulting in bookings for short breaks or less expensive trips recovering quickest. Following on from this, the briefing reports that evidence gathered indicates that being on holiday can trigger people into thinking about future holidays and breaks.

During the 1991 Gulf War, both inbound and domestic tourism saw a drop in visits and expenditure. The number of overseas visitors dropped 7 per cent compared with the previous year and expenditure was down 9 per cent.

Domestic tourism - overnight trips - for 1991 saw a fall of 2 per cent over 1990 in both the number of visits made and expenditure.

The foot and mouth outbreak in 2001, followed by the attack on the World Trade Centre, combined to cause a drop in overseas visitors that year of 10 per cent, whilst domestic visitor numbers were down by 6 per cent. These figures were, though, also influenced by the world economic situation, very much different to that of 1991.

Of the figures for 2001, the BTTF briefing reports that a lesson learnt was percentages quoted as national averages can disguise regional variations. London and the south east of England depend more on overseas visitors, whilst the north of the country, Scotland and Wales earn 90 per cent of their incomes from domestic visitors.

Experience indicates that in the domestic market the current general loss of confidence will have a bigger impact on business tourism than leisure based tourism, which is likely to show more resilience. Seaside and rural destinations will be less affected than cities and it is considered likely that London, relying heavily on overseas visitors and suffering from worries about security, will feel the greatest impact.

Prior to the outbreak of war in Iraq, UK tourist boards were predicting growth for 2003 in the region of +4 per cent. It is now felt that a relatively short period of conflict will result in nil growth for the year, whilst a greater loss of business will result from any longer period.